The Politics of Mine Action Normative, game and decision theoretic approaches to post-conflict problems caused by landmines and explosive remnants of war Mine action as a concept aims at alleviating the impact of landmines and similar explosive remnants of war and, contrary to its narrow interpretation, entails much more than a singular action against mines. If performed well, significant humanitarian, socio-economic and peacekeeping and/or peacebuilding benefits can be obtained via the five mine action “pillars”: mine clearance, victim assistance, stockpile destruction, mine risk education and advocacy.      "The Politics of Mine Action" is about the multilateral and institutional politics and policy-making in a particular disarmament domain. Through the application of game theoretic principles, it envisages bringing clarity to a myriad of political actors and courses of action in response to a complex global problem. The mixture of politics and its underpinning technicalities are further specified in the subtitle “Normative, game and decision theoretic approaches to post-conflict problems caused by landmines and similar explosive remnants of war”. It stipulates in which discipline this dissertation in particular wants to contribute, namely through the presentation of innovative decision analysis approaches. This envisaged contribution is born out of the observations made during field visits of divers mine action programmes, in particular the mine action programme in Afghanistan. Based on this case-study, this dissertation demonstrates through a set of metrics how mine action can contribute to a more secure environment, reduce human suffering and allow for the promotion of a variety of vital post-conflict reconstruction and development activities.   The below table provides a more detailed  executive summary per chapter.

PhD cover and table of contents

Chapter One: Research Aim and Methodology

The decision making problems related to the effective and efficient prioritization of mine action are extremely challenging. The current efforts to define the impact of the landmine problem, largely in terms of high-medium and low impact, are commendable but criticized for not providing sufficient differentiation at national and local level to aid decision making and prioritization of mine action activities. This dissertation seeks to demonstrate that current irregular decision making approaches do not offer a comprehensive or de-conflicting prioritization process of mine action activities. Therefore, it aspires to present a methodology in support of political decision making processes which better incorporate varied types of information. This includes the views of multiple stakeholders and public policies that must typically be brought to bear when humanitarian relief, disarmament and post-conflict restoration are under consideration. Additionally, the conflicting political dynamics related to the norms of the Mine Ban Treaty - whereby State Parties are obliged to respect stringent deadlines for clearance and stockpile destruction - will be brought into the equation. By challenging the contemporary conservative views this dissertation aims to prove that the politics of mine action and its related complex decision making processes can and should rely on advanced multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), based on normative, game and decision theoretic approaches. The central problem is how to evaluate a numerous and complex set of alternatives, based on carefully selected criteria, in order to determine a most optimal solution. Although this problem is relevant in practice, there are currently few methods available in the field of mine action. Thus, the question “Which is the optimal method to find the best strategic response for a given landmine problem?” is of particular interest throughout this dissertation. It requires questioning the current process of prioritization of mine action activities versus other post-conflict humanitarian and development needs.

Chapter Two: Normative and Game Theoretic Analysis

A normative and game theoretic analysis helps to study the most important political dynamics related to assistance in mine action. The United Nations resolution Assistance in mine action, an important United Nations agenda item since 1993, offers a unique source of information to analyse and clarify how UN Member States and the UN Secretariat perceive and formulate mine action. Examining this inclusive process at a global level, at which all UN Member States can exercise their political influence, provides ample insight on how the international community through consensus tries to find remedies and resolutions to a multifaceted problem. The normative and game theoretic analysis allows for the deduction of goals, indicators and criteria which should be indicative for the effectiveness of the current Politics of Mine Action. It is also a suitable lead-in for readers without extensive mine action knowledge and through which they can acquire sufficient understanding on the humanitarian, socio-economic and security problems caused by landmines.

Chapter Three: Normative Modelling

In this chapter, several modelling aspects of mine action are examined more closely. How game and decision theoretic principles can be combined with quantitative and qualitative criteria will be evaluated and integrated in a normative multiple criteria model. Via statistical analysis of mine action data, the potential of strategic multiple criteria decision analysis is comprehensively illustrated. A brief analysis follows on how the Politics of Mine Action can correspond to overarching Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers and the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

Chapter Four: Case-study Afghanistan

In order to support the empirical credibility of this dissertation, expertise acquired through participation in field studies, workshops and political processes has been applied throughout the analysis and research. In this regard, the Mine Action Program in Afghanistan serves as the case-study. Its decision making problems related to the effective and efficient prioritization of mine action are extremely challenging, considering the impact of more than four thousand minefields on more than two thousand affected Afghan communities.Through the application of the normative model, the importance of statistical analysis and strategic planning is illustrated at a national level. Innovative multiple criteria decision analysis and normative modelling are first evaluated and developed for the most heavily mined province and capital in the world: Kabul. For basic cross-validation purposes, the modelling methodology developed for Kabul is applied on other mine-affected provinces in Afghanistan.

Chapter Five: Global Dimension and Conclusions

The findings of the Afghan case-study are studied within a global context. The study results in the formulation of “Grand Strategy” findings and recommendations for the Politics of Mine Action.

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